Mon Outlook : FX, Gold, Oil, Moore

♦ Labour Day : markets in US and Canada are closed

♦ Today, USD weakening to 1.4348 against Euro but a bit stronger against JPY – if EURUSD can cross over to 1.445 we should have a run up to 1.475 possibly testing 1.48  ;  risk appetite looks still good therefore I do have some doubts on robust gold trading – here a viewpoint on gold and silver and oil ; we are putting on a few speculative trades but likely will not add them to the GMR Portfolio.   Kiener is very bullish on gold – he has been for years !

• Signs of Weakness Emerge in the equities … but things right now actually look supportive overall especially when reviewing yesterdays GMR PF Update and the indicators therein.
• FT reports that Saudi Arabia has upped oil supply nearly 50% to 12.5m/barrels per day capacity but is only outputting 8.5m/day to “groom” the price and keep it higher near $70  – the entire world’s energy is run by the OPEC monopoly more or less … and therefore one can imagine their “influence peddling” at the highest levels…

“After much stimulus bailout and a bazooka, the U.S. and the U.K. still face significant imbalances and challenges. The green shoots look more like yellow weeds to me.” N. Roubini

• Oil looks weak(er) and may target $60 shorter-term if there is equity downturn ; this may be gold negative as oil and gold often track each other closely – obviously last week it did not follow that rule whatsover as gold jumped and oil fell.  OPEC meets on Wednesday and that is like herding a group of cats – nearly impossible.  But if all think we are in a recovery then oil prices may remain quite stable in terms of not announcing any supply cuts – if anything, recovery talk would tend to talk up oil prices … which is gold positive.
• Michael Moore …. he’s coming back on 02 October  CAP ITAL ISM – A Love Story
  

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