Thu Outlook : CityBoy – Dollar – Copper – Obama Health

I had heard Geraint’s interview on the BBC a long time ago and finally remembered to get this up … if you want to know how the financial markets really work, and why so much greed out there, just give this book a read.  Very disconcerting to say the least.  Some of us are honest and forthright but that seems to be such a “quaint” characteristic these days…

• New World Order of Finances Emerges : GMR Letter reported over 6 months ago on the credit outlook going forward  … we now read : “It means much less risk-taking, at least for a number of years to come — a decade or two. That will be evident in less credit and more costly credit. If you are a household or a business, it will cost you more, and it will be more difficult to get that credit.”

• Books to Curl Up With : ‘Dr. Doom’ Might Have Spared Bear, Saved $34 Trillion How Kaufman told us, reminded us and many still flipped condos…
• Obama is going “all out”, or in poker, “all in”, with his health plan – this I fear will end in tears because it goes against what many people actually seem to be saying of having a clear 2-track option.  I’m not an expert by any means, but when a bankrupt country plans even more socialism, the outcome can only be even more socialism ergo taxes must rise and this will brake both a strong US Dollar and US growth as taxes mean less consumption and more fear.  This speech does not look like compromise but rather a “throwing down of the gauntlet” – my way or the highway. Just a note : we have fully socialized medicine here in Europe – to a certain degree it is a blessing but a nightmare.  Corruption is rampant, the government is in bed with so many of the providers via lobbying and the government dictates how much of your salary – yes, salary – goes directly to the govt system.  So yes, you are covered, but the freedom to choose is limited, can take a long time to get appointments and certainly one has no access to experts – because many do not accept patients from the govt healthcare system.  Caveat emptor !

• it’s not my job or even in my interest to approve or deny this article, BUT this was sent to me by readers – this guy has been posting on all the big portal sites for years… is he a mini-Madoff fraud ? Mr. Moscrip obviously thinks so.  And just checking out of curiosity, his Dow Theory Analysis site is now OFFLINE. hmmmmm….
• European Opening :  DAX and FTSE reached new year highs, Oil is up over $72, USD is down on the Euro to 1.4582
• Miners are back up this morning
• Our 3 Trades from Monday evening : down 3% while overall the GMR Portfolio is up by another $3000 ; if miners stay up trades should ideally come back into line ; stop losses remain in place ; surge in Gold over $1000 looks strained to say the least… trend is up however ; silver has been outperforming gold but one would not know it by looking at the PM equities … yes they are up but still no “mad rush” by far… and yesterday many of the gold and precious metal equities were the biggest losers on the TSX !
• OPEC decides to do nothing and hold output ; Brazil’s offshore finding may be double BPs recent find in Gulf of Mexico … Peak Oil ?  Oil sands galore, multi-billion barrel new finds … it may be a while before any real change is coming in the oil sector or world supply worries…(Brazil Oil Find Could Hold 2bn Barrels) Brazil’s prospects of becoming a leading oil producer increased on Wednesday when the national oil company Petrobras reported that the Guará field contained the equivalent of 1.1bn to 2bn barrels of recoverable oil and gas.

♦ I have said a number of times that base metals are still looking good and the near future copper contract looks further bullish ; waiting for a break over 3 … should launch many of the copper equities ; GMR Portfolio is adding a new entry here

♦ Bank of England will likely do nothing today and hold rates – will they follow Sweden and go to negative interest rates ?

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